The Premier League has returned and the fixture-makers have given us a fascinating game to end the opening weekend on, as reigning champions Manchester City travel to the Emirates Stadium to take on Unai Emery’s new-look Arsenal side. It’s hard to tell exactly what we should expect from the Gunners as they embark on a new era, or for that matter a City team that has squandered every Premier League title defence they’ve staged before.But hoping to shed some light on how this one will pan out, our match preview includes everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s 4pm kickoff…
What History Tells Us
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Arsenal have traditionally held the upper hand in this fixture – in fact, it actually took until 2006 for Manchester City to beat the Gunners in the Premier League, losing all but three of their first 18 meetings. Accordingly, Arsenal lead the way in terms of goals and clean sheets but this clash has balanced out somewhat since City’s Sheik takeover. Its now the Citizens who have lost just two of the last 12 encounters, their last defeat to the Gunners coming all the way back in 2015.
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City have never fared too well on Arsenal’s patch though – last season’s victory at the Emirates Stadium was their first since 2012 – and for those looking to take something off the bookies this weekend, a flutter on a red card could well pay off.
Managerial Head-to-Head
Duelling with Guardiola is nothing new for the Arsenal boss – Emery’s faced him ten times before from their days in La Liga. All of those clashes were between Valencia and Barcelona and while Emery was often praised for how his side could make things difficult for the Nou Camp outfit, they never actually beat the current Spanish champions with Guardiola winning six and drawing four.
The last meeting, however, was all the way back in 2012 and quite a lot has changed since then. First and foremost, Emery’s gone on to win eight trophies with Sevilla and PSG and will accordingly feel he’s a more even adversary of Guardiola’s at this moment in time. That said, some things stay the same – Emery’s game-plan still centres around that 4-2-3-1 formation, while Guardiola’s City side line up in his Barcelona-inspired 4-3-3.
Referee Influence – Michael Oliver
At first glance, Michael Oliver’s strict refereeing style benefits attacking teams, simply because of how quick he is to award fouls, penalties and even red cards, which would play straight into Manchester City’s hands this weekend.
But actually, the potential is there for Arsenal to really take advantage of Oliver’s approach, especially bearing in mind that he comparatively ranked much lower for yellow cards per game from the 21 referees to work in the Premier League last season.
After all, City look to break down teams by keeping the ball in play as much as possible and eventually wearing them out with their immaculate passing game. But Oliver’s whistle-happy approach gives the Gunners grounds to really disrupt the rhythm of City’s possession-based philosophy without fearing the consequences too much.
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In fact, even if Arsenal do give fouls away in dangerous areas, City only scored from five free kicks throughout the whole of last season – a decent if somewhat unspectacular return considering they bagged over 100 goals in total.
That being said, both teams must be wary of Oliver’s high ranking for red cards, especially considering – as previously mentioned – the number City have already suffered in this fixture down the years.
Team News
We’re still operating within the realms of guesswork at this point as Emery doesn’t seem too settled on his strongest starting XI just yet after a pre-season of continuous changes in both shape and personnel. But he’s tested ways to get Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the same starting XI, and we’re tipping both to start on Sunday with the latter moving out wide to accommodate the former up top.
Another recurring theme of pre-season was 19-year-old Matteo Guendouzi, who impressed so much over the summer that he may have just weaved his way into Arsenal’s midfield alongside signing Lucas Torreira, who should give the Gunners some much-needed grit at the base of the engine room. Another youngster in Ainsley Maitland-Niles, aged 20, should start as well with fellow left-back options Nacho Monreal and Sead Kolasinac expected to miss out through injury.
Guardiola’s biggest selection headache this weekend, aside from the fact Manchester City boast quality in depth in pretty much every position, is navigating a number of late returns from the World Cup. Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne have only started training this week and although Guardiola described them as being in ‘perfect condition’ it seems unlikely either will start in what’s actually quite an important away game for the reigning champions.
However, we are expecting David Silva to make the cut. He’s recently suffered a knock but has been in training a little longer and could partner Bernardo Silva in central midfield after the Portuguese impressed so much there in the 2-0 win over Chelsea. The other potential change from the starting XI fielded at Wembley is at the back – Aymeric Laporte should be clear to play, but Guardiola may elect against risking the youngster bearing in mind the wealth of alternatives he has at the heart of defence.